In the new 2026/27 season, Ukraine may increase corn and barley production, while the wheat harvest is expected to be lower – according to the FAS USDA report.

In 2026/27 MY, corn production is forecasted at 31.5 million tons (+3%), and exports may grow to 26 million tons (+26%).

In the current season, shipment dynamics are restrained. From October 2025 to February 2026, exports amounted to 10.6 million tons, 10% less than a year earlier.

Ending stocks have risen sharply – to 4.3 million tons against 606 thousand tons a year earlier.

The wheat harvest in 2026/27 MY is forecasted at 22.7 million tons (-5%), and exports may reach 15.5 million tons (+19%).

From July 2025 to February 2026, Ukraine exported 9 million tons of wheat, which is 24% less year on year. About 60% of the volumes went to 3 markets: Egypt (2.4 million tons), Algeria (1.6 million tons) and Indonesia (1.4 million tons).

The slowdown in export rates led to an increase in stocks – to 2.97 million tons against 629 thousand tons in the previous season.

In 2026/27 MY, barley production may grow to 6.1 million tons (+9%), and exports – to 4.2 million tons (+133%).

In the current season, exports slumped. From July 2025 to February 2026, they amounted to 1.3 million tons (-36%). About 80% of the volume went to 4 countries: China (490 thousand tons), Turkey (300 thousand tons), Libya (138 thousand tons), and Saudi Arabia (121 thousand tons).

Ending stocks increased to 1.95 million tons against 305 thousand tons a year earlier.

FAS also notes the overall slowdown in grain exports from Ukraine. Average monthly supplies of wheat, barley and corn from July 2025 to March 2026 were 22% lower than a year earlier.

The EU is gradually losing its position as the key market for Ukrainian grain. In 2025, it accounted for 29% of exports against 41% in 2024. This affected wheat and barley the most – after the introduction of import quotas in October 2025. Corn suffered less due to the specifics of customs regulation.

At the same time, Ukraine maintains licensing of wheat and corn exports to certain EU countries – Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland – due to their unilateral restrictions.

Reference source: http://surl.li/joeerdfxcwqazxcvbbb