On July 11, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published the world forecast for the balance of major agricultural crops for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY).

According to USDA forecasts, in 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine's wheat production will reduce by 1 million tons up to 22.0 million tons. Accordingly, wheat exports will also reduce by 1.0 million tons to 15.5 million tons. As for corn, the production and export forecasts remain the same: 30.5 million tons and 15.5 million tons, respectively.

The forecast for the world wheat market for 2025/26 MY assumes a decrease in supply (due to a decrease in initial stocks), an increase in consumption, a decrease in trade and final stocks.

The forecast for world wheat production in 2025/26 MY remains at the same level – 808.6 million tons. However, there will be a reduce in production in Canada (1.0 million tonnes up to 35.0 million tonnes), Ukraine (-1.0 million tonnes to 22.0 million tonnes) and Iran, which compensates for the increase in production in Kazakhstan (+1.0 million tonnes to 15.5 million tonnes), the EU (+0.7 million tonnes to 137.3 million tonnes), Pakistan and Russia (+0.5 million tonnes to 83.5 million tonnes). At the same time, world consumption will increase by 0.8 million tonnes to 810.6 million, mainly due to increased forage use and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thailand.

Reference source:  http://surl.li/kglbeot423z