Комітет з питань аграрної та земельної політики: «Скорочення виробництва та експорту української сільськогосподарської продукції внаслідок військової агресії росії суттєво вплине на світовий ринок та призведе до зростання цін»

According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world balance of major grain crops for the next 2022/23 marketing year it  is expected to reduce wheat production in Ukraine by 35%, and corn - twice.

According to this USDA forecast, in 2022/23 MY Ukraine's indicators of wheat production and exports will be at the level of 21,5 million tons and 10 million tons, respectively. So, the production of wheat will be 11,5 million tons lower than 2021/22 MY, and export - 9 million tons. As for corn, the production in 2022/23 MY is planned at 19,5 million tons (-11,5 million tons compared to the previous marketing year), and export - 9 million tons (-14 million tons compared to the previous period). Such a significant reduction in both production and export will significantly affect the world market and lead to higher prices.

The world forecast of wheat for 2022/2023 MY expects a lower production and consumption, an increase in trade and a reduction in final supplies. Thus, world wheat production in the next marketing year is expected at the level of 774,8 million tons, which is 4,5 million tons less than in 2021/22. The decline in production in Ukraine, Australia and Morocco is only partially compensated by the increase in Canada, russia and the United States. Among the significant changes in the market for wheat production, except for Ukraine, it is expected in Canada, where it is planned to renew production up to 33 million tons. In 2021/22 MY Canada produced only 21,7 million tons due to drought.

The projected world final wheat reserves for 2022/2023 MY are reduced by 5% up to 267 million tons, and this will be the lowest level in six years. The biggest change will be in India, where projected balances will fall up to 16,4 million tons, the lowest level in five years.

The global forecast for the corn market in 2022/2023 MY provides for a decline in production and trade, as well as lower final supplies. In the 2022/23 MY, world corn production is expected to reduce to 34,9 million tons to 1 180,7 million tons compared to the last year's indicators. This will be due to tye reduction of production in Ukraine, the USA, EU and China, and it is also partially compensated by the growth of production in Argentina, Serbia and South Africa. 

The last corn supplies in 2022/23 MY are expected to reduce by 1,4% to 305.1 million tonnes, mainly due to reducing supplies in China and the United State of America.

At the same time, the country-aggressor informs it expects a record-braking grain crop harvest in Russia, and has already taken away from Ukraine by marauding way nearly 500 000 tons of grain worth 100 million US dollars.


Reference source: Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 



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