Despite the fact that EU trade with Ukraine has suffered greatly since the beginning of the large-scale invasion of russia, in December 2022, the share of Ukraine in EU export to third countries was higher than the pre-war level (1,5% in December compared to 1,2% in February 2022).

The total import of agri-food products from the EU to Ukraine fell from almost €3,2 billion in 2021 to €3 billion in 2022, but some EU member states were able to grow up their supplies of agricultural products. The export of agri-food products from Poland to Ukraine in 2022 increased by €133 million (+16%) and amounted to €945 million.

The trend of import growth continued in the first quarter of 2023: agricultural and food products were imported from the EU to Ukraine for more than €914 million, which is €285 million more than the import indicators for the same period in 2022, and €107 million more than the indicator import for the 1st quarter of 2021.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, agricultural and food products worth almost €262,7 million were imported directly from Poland to Ukraine. This indicator significantly exceeds the results of import for the same period in 2022 (almost +93,2 million €) and 2021 (almost +76 million €).

If we take a closer look at the structure of Polish import and compare them with the offer of similar products from domestic producers, we can see a situation where the growth of import from Poland to Ukraine of some product groups led to the loss of positions in the domestic market directly by Ukrainian producers.

Thus, according to the Association of Flour Millers of Ukraine, Ukrainian manufacturers of flour milling products were partially displaced from Ukrainian retail in some regions of Ukraine by cheaper Polish and Turkish products (pasta, macaroni, etc.). An identical situation occurred on the Ukrainian market with dairy and meat products.

If this trend continues, there is a risk of further replacement of Ukrainian grain processors and producers of flour milling products by international (including European) producers.

Reference source: https://bit.ly/3OPSZlt